The City of San Mateo had 140 houses for sale last week with a Median price of $677,000.  The Average price of those houses for sale was $820,827, with the least expensive house listed at $399,000 – something we haven’t seen for years.  The most expensive house was listed at $1,998,000.  Obviously, there is a dramatic difference between the least expensive and the most expensive house and location is only part of the reason.  Seven houses were either sold, canceled, expired or withdrawn, but likely they were all 7 were sold.  The time it takes to sell a home in San Mateo has gone up and is now averaging 109 days.  Our research company, Altos Research calls the City of San Mateo a Cold! Buyer’s Market.

San Mateo, the second largest city in San Mateo County, has four zip codes and I’ll go over the difference in the real estate market within each zip a little later.  Altos Research likes to divide their research into quarters, or Quartiles.  Quartile One makes up the most expensive group of houses down to Quartile Four, with the entry level homes, or the least expensive.  Each of these Quartiles generally fall into different parts of the city, but not always.  The First and Second Quartiles are selling faster than the Third and Fourth Quartile, yet all of them have a median of 3 bedrooms and either 1 or 2+ baths.  There is a slight difference in the median age of the homes in the different Quartiles, and of course, the square footage or size of the house is different.

The chart showing the decline in Median Price for the City of San Mateo is quite dramatic as it has dropped from the peak around the 4th Quarter 2006 to 1st Quarter 2007.  Everyone is curious if the market has dropped out completely and the Median Price isn’t always going to show this but it is interesting to see prices have been bumping up a little this week.  What will really tell you how the market is doing is by looking at the Market Action Index.

Altos Research developed a way to measure the fluctuation of supply and demand in the real estate market and by analyzing those fluctuations you can get a great picture of what a real estate market is all about.  The dramatic drop in October of 2007 was not the market but a change in the way Altos Research crunched the data.  The market was beginning to drop at that time but so dramatically.  The Index runs from zero to fifty.  The number 30 is the delineation between a Seller’s Market and a Buyer’s Market.  The closer you get to the number 30 the warmer or cooler you become.  The 90-day Market Action Index for the City of San Mateo is at 18, a Strong Buyer’s Market.  This means there is several months of housing inventory on the market and anyone considering buying in San Mateo has a fairly good selection.

So what’s the difference between the other zip codes if the median Market Action Index of the City is 18?  Let’s take a look by beginning with Quartile One.

94402

The most expensive homes in San Mateo are generally found in the 94402 Zip Code. These homes are found mostly west of El Camino Real from the Burlingame border where San Mateo Park sits to highway 92 and encompassing Baywood, Aragon, Baywood Knolls, Parrott Park and  the homes near Aragon High School.  This is Quartile One. The Median Price for homes in this zip last week, and for most of the last part of 2008, have hovered around $1,200,000.  The average priced home was $1,138,818,  The least expensive home was $432,500 and the most expensive was $1,998,000.  Both of these extremes were in teh 94402 zip code.  We are seeing an uptick in the number of days on the market to 96 and there were 44 houses for sale last week and 2 sold.  The average sized home in 94402 is about 1800 square feet on a lot between 5000 and 6500 square feet in size and it’s 58 years old.

The Market Action Index says the 94402 Zip Code is sitting at 16 and that’s considered a Cold! Buyer’s Market. The reason for this is that demand is very low for the higher priced homes due to the difficulty in getting mortgages.  These homes are what we refer to as “move-up” properties and in order to move-up you need to sell your current house.  This is a problem today when there’s competition with Short Sales and the few Foreclosures we’re seeing in the Quartile Two.  Looking at this chart you might say, oh it’s at the bottom or heading that way.  Who knows.  Altos Research takes data weekly and each little squiggle you see is a different week.  Last week 94402 was down, this week it might be up.  If you are Pre-Approved for a loan and covet this area, you can get a great buy at 2004 prices.

94403

This zip encompasses both Quartile Two and Quartile Three.  It is often the area of homes that first time buyers move-up to or move-up from.  This zip code begins just south of highway 92, runs across 101 to cover homes about a half of a mile north to those south near Hillsdale Blvd and then back across 101 to take in the rest of southern San Mateo up to 280.  These homes had a Median Price of $699,000 last week.  The Average Price was $799,759 and with that the least expensive home was $479,900 (likely a Bank Owned Property at that price) to a high of $1,750,000.  The median size finds a house around 1500 square feet sitting on a lot between 4500 and 6500 square feet and is probably a 3 bedroom, 2 bath 54 year old house.

The Market Action Index in the 94403 Zip Code is sitting at 19 and Altos Research says that’s a Cold! Buyer’s Market. It’s also the highest Market Action Index within San Mateo right now. There were 40 houses for sale last week and 4 houses were either sold, withdrawn, canceled or had expired listings.  My guess is these houses sold.  The average days on the market in this zip is now around 99 days.  The homes in this zip cover both Quartile Two and Quartile Three.

94401

Quartile Four resides almost entirely in the 94401 Zip Code.  This is the area of San Mateo that has seen the most Short Sales and REO’s (Bank Owned Properties).  Prices have declined steadily for the past two years.  The high of the market was just about the end of 2006 start of 2007 and prices were in Fantasyland for what was for sale.  These are small homes, built post-war they generally sit either around downtown or across 101 in North and South Shoreview neighborhoods.  There are pockets of newer homes that get much higher prices, and some that sit along the bay also commanding higher prices, too.  Prices are at levels we haven’t seen in years and I’d say they’re back to 2001 or 2002 levels, making them great buys for first time home owners or investors.

The Median Price last week was $499,450.  We saw an average price of $572,731 and within this zip sits the least expensive house for sale in San Mateo at $399,00 and one of the most expensive houses at $1,290,000.  The median size of a house in this zip is about 1100 square feet and generally these houses sit on 5000 square foot lots.  They were originally mostly 2 bedroom 1 baths homes but have been added on so now the median number of bedrooms sits at 3 with 2 baths and the house is about 59 years old.

Looking at the Market Action Index for 94401 Altos Research labels it at 16, a Cold! Buyer’s Market.  There were 54 houses for sale last week and only one sale.  The market in this Quartile is bouncing along the bottom and has been there for over a year.  There are many months of supply and we keep seeing more and more Short Sales and Bank Owned listings in this area making it a Hot Opportunityf or Investors.

The last Zip Code in San Mateo is 94404.  There are only a handful of single family houses in this zip code, which is shared with Foster City.  I’ll cover this zip code tomorrow when I talk about the Condo/Townhouse Market in San Mateo.

As always, should you wish more detailed information about San Mateo we’re happy to provide it.  Just drop us and email here or call us at 650-696-2820.

We have interest rates at historical rates, rate I never thought we’d see again, so if you have secure employment, money in the bank, a good FICO score and the desire to own your own home, this is a fantastic time to do it.  San Mateo is a great city with a variety of homes to choose from.  It’s a central commute whether you’re headed north towards San Francisco or South San Francisco’s biotech or south to Silicon Valley.  It’s close to SFO, has great public transit and almost perfect weather.  What’s not to like?

Last week there were 41 houses for sale in this zip.  Only 2 sold. The Median price for a home in this zip is over $1,000,000.  Prices range from $549,000 to $2.65 Million.  With such a spread in price there can be a big difference in the  house, too.

Last week prices dropped a bit and so did the average days on the market.  We are in a Spring Market, this zip code has the most coveted houses and school, Baywood Elementary.  Houses are larger, lots are average for the city, unless youre in San Mateo Park, where lots range up to a half acre.

The Market Action is steady at a 25. putting 94402 into the Cool Buyers Market.  The Red Line is the delinator betwen a Buyers Market and a Sellers Market according to Altos Research.  This zip is the closest to a Sellers Market in the city of San Mateo.

Everyone wants to time the market and buy at the bottom.  I am always being asked if were at the bottom of the market.  This chart tells us that no, the bottom of the market for 94402 took place late last year.  So, its too late for you if thats what you were trying to do.  Its a great time to get a fair price for a home in the nicest area of San Mateo.

The area that can command the highest prices is San Mateo Park. The Park has roads that meander throughout the area, turn-arounds, and no sidewalks.  Some of the homes there are the oldest found in San Mateo, having been built in the late 1800s and early 1900s.  The homes might be stately or, then again, smaller in stature.  There is a nice variety of houses to see driving along the beautiful tree shaded roads.  The Park runs west of El Camino Real between Poplar Avenue and Barroilhet Avenue and then morphs into Hillsborough.  Prices start around $1.25 million and go on up from there.

Baywood, the Knolls, and Aragon sit on the south side of Hillsborough.  The homes are large, the streets wide, and they are walking distance to downtown.

On the eastern side of El Camino finds Hayward Park, a charming area that runs from Downtowns San Mateo park to highway 92.  The main street is Palm Blvd, a wide street with some lovely craftsmen homes.  East of the Caltrain tracks finds Sunnybrae.  This area goes from 4th Avenue south to 92 with cute houses averaging 1000 square feet on a 5000 foot lot.  Nice starter homes that average $712,000.

Tomorrow 94403.

The median price for the entire city is $784,444.  Almost half of the houses on the market have seen
price reductions and the average days on the market is 59. As we look at each zip code in San Mateo we begin to see a different picture.

94401 has a median price of $667,994 and 54% of the homes on the market have seen price reductions.
Altos tells us it is a Cold Buyer’s Market with homes on the market an average of 73 days.

94402 has a median price of $969,000, the average days on the market is 39 and 40% of the homes
listed in the zip code have seen price reductions. It is a Cool Buyer’s Market.

94403 has a median price of $799,500 and 36% of the homes on the market have seen price reductions.
The average days on market at 62.  It, too, is a Cool Buyer’s Market.

Last is 94404, the shared zip with Foster City, but this part of San Mateo has nothing to compare with San
Mateo.  The median price last week was $780,000, with 28 days average on the market and is a Cold Buyer’s Market, too.

So what does this all mean?  The Market Action Index has been trending down lately, while inventory
is climbing.  These trends imply a weakening market.

Prices have eased down a bit and Altos Research believes that there will be a persistent down-shift in
the market Action Index before we see prices deviate from these levels.  Local conditions are currently quite strong in the Buyer’s Market zone – below 30.  The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 20 over all for the city, 14 for zip 94401, 22 for zip 94402, 20 for 94403, and 7 for 94404.

What this all means is that we have a good inventory of homes for qualified buyers, there’s money to lend
and it’s a good time to buy a home for your family or yourself.  Will the market continue dropping?  Who knows.  If it does it does, but if it doesn’t and you haven’t jumped in to buy your home you
will regret it.  We are here to help you, just ask.

Altos Research breaks down San Mateo into zip codes as well as providing a city overview.  Let’s talk about the city first, and then I’ll break
the data down to zip codes.  Last week there were 150 homes for sale and the average time on the market was 57 days with half of these
listings coming to market within the past month.  That’s an improvement from recent weeks.  Overall the city is considered a Warm Seller’s market with 10 homes sold and 13 listed.  Eight of the thirteen new listings were in the most expensive areas of San Mateo.  Over the past 90 days prices have dropped a bit across all price levels.  Generally San Mateo has not seen much go intoforeclosure.

94401

This is the area that runs from the Burlingame border east to the bay, south through south Shoreview and east to downtown and north up

Zip 94401

along El Camino back to Burlingame.  Generally it covers entry level property with a median price last week of $699,000 but does incorporate a portion of San Mateo Park with the most expensive homes in San Mateo.  Prices have been trending down in this area and time on the market has been a little over two months, 63 days. Two months on market makes it a nornal market but Altos Research is saying this zip code is a Cool Buyer’s market.  This is the zip code that is beginning to show up with Short Sales.  The homes are small and modest.  They were built either in the 1930′s, 1940′s or 1950′s.  Lots are generally around 5000 sq. feet.  Two homes were sold in this zip last week.

94402

Zip 94402

This is the area that abutts Hillsborough on the north, 280 on the west, south to Highway 92 and back north along El Camino to include the other portion of San Mateo Park.  The median pricefor a home last week was $1,193,000.  The most expensive home onthe market in this zip code was $2,900,000.  The average days onthe market is 56.  there were 28 homes for sale and 5 sold. This is a highly sought after area in San Mateo with top schools and generally old stately homes on bigger lots and wide tree lined
streets.  Because of their price, generally well above $1 million,
these homes currently have a larger base of potential buyers than other
parts of the city.

94403

Welcome to the southern portion of San Mateo, south from Highway 92 to the Belmont city line,  east across 101 into

Zip 94403

Los Prados and Parkside areas and back across 101 at 92.  The homes range from small entry level homes to larger one in the hills.  The median price last week was $839,250 for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home around 1400 sq. feet but they range of prices is broad from as low as $619,000 for a small 2 bedroom home up to $1,388,000.  It is still considered a Warm Seller’s market in this zip code.  The range of schools is broade with some good schools in the hills and weak schools in other portions of the zip code.  Prices have held  steady here for many months and we are even seeing prices increase in the hills.

94404

This zip is shared with Foster City and will be covered tomorrow under Foster City.

Last week the city of San Mateo had 129 homes for sale with an average time on the market of 81 days. Inventory and days-on-market have been climbing compared to years past, but the Market Action Index is still flat. The trends point toward a weakening market but Altos tells us it is still a Warm Sellers Market of 38. Since San Mateo has been pretty much built out, the homes we have are the homes available and nothing new is being built. We have more people seeking homes in our area than there are homes for them. That is the reason prices stayhigh around her

Because of the size of the city, prices for homes run from entry levels, in the high $600,000′s to multi-millions of dollars. The higher priced homes, in Quartile 1, generally sit on the west side of El Camino Real right around Hillsborough’s town line. They are large homes and depending on where they are the lots can be up to a half acre or more. The entry level homes, in Quartile 4, generally are found east and west of 101 and east of El Camino Real. These are small homes 2 or 3 bedrooms under 1000 sq. feet and sitting on 5000 foot lots.

The prices for homes are moving downward a bit compared to their highs of the past couple of years. The Market Action Index sees this asa good indicator that this trend will continue. Prices have generally
settled in at a plateau but the homes in Quartile 1 have trended downward in recent weeks. This is likely due to fewer homes for sale in the high end.

Price per square foot is often how people factor how much a house costs and in San Mateo price per square foot has been stagnant for a while with the average price per square foot at about $620. Residential
house prices are the perfect example of supply side economics and an example of this is with the Market Action Index which is the index of supply. The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 38 which indicates at
the demand is relatively strong but the available supply of housing isn’t getting acquired immediately. An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller’s Market”. A hot marke causes prices to rise and a cool market causes price decline and remain for sale for longer periods of time. Currently the average days on the market in San Mateo is 81 days with half of all listings today have come on to the market in the last 49 days.

The 94401 zip code. This zip is still a Warm Seller’s Market. So if you’re in the market to buy a starter home in San Mateo, it’s unlikely that prices will drop much.

The 94402 zip code. This is the zip with the high priced homes in San Mateo. You find San Mateo Park, Baywood and Aragon in this zip code. It is a Seller’s Market with few homes to choose from at this time.

The 94403 zip code. These are mostly West side San Mateo homes generally south of 92 down to the Belmont line. There are some entry level homes in here and they are found east of 101, and just
north and south of Hillsdale Blvd. These are mostly move-up homes in this zip.

Finally, the 94404 zip code, the last San Mateo zip code. This one is also shared with Foster City but the data here is only for San Mateo. The homes here are east of 101 and south of East Third Avenue and primarily in Mariners Island and Bridgepoint. This area is primarily townhouses and condos but there are some nice single family homes sitting on the water.

Tomorrow is Foster City.