One of the best ways to see the picture of a local market is by dividing it into quartiles by price.  You can immediately get an idea of which price point is selling and which is not.  The houses taking the least amount of time, in fact almost a normal amount of time, to sell are the Third Quartile with the Median Price of $954,500.  This is the “move up” house.  These houses are between 3 and 5 bedrooms on 5000+ foot lots and allow the buyer to send their children to the top rated Foster City Elementary Schools.  The bottom quartile is the next most active followed by the top two tiers.  If you want to live on the water, and many people do in Foster City, you’ll be in the top two quartiles.

Another way to see how the market is doing is looking at pricing trends.  We are back to 2005 prices.  If you bought between 2005 and 2008 you’ve lost equity but don’t fret about that unless you have an Alt-A loan, or need to sell because what goes down will come back up but it will take a while.  So if you love your house, what does it matter if the equity is less today.  It’s what the equity is the day you need to sell it that will matter.

What matters is how the market is today and Foster City has moved upwards and is now a Warm Buyer’s Market and moving towards an equal market for buyers and sellers.  This is GREAT NEWS!  The Market Action Index places Foster City at 25. That line sitting at 30 is the divide between a Buyer’s Market and a Seller’s Market.  We haven’t seen this in well over a year.  What it means to the seller is the market is stabilizing.  What it means to the buyer is the bottom was a long time ago.  You missed it so stop asking when it will hit.  You can clearly see it in the chart above as the last time Foster City hit bottom was perhaps in February.

If you’re interested in buying in Foster City as a First Time Home Buyer come to a seminar I’ll be participating in on Tuesday, September 15th.  It will be held in the Lagoon Room of the Foster City Park & Rec Department on Shell Blvd. between 6:15PM and 8:15PM.  It’s FREE.  You do need to register and can do so here.  If the 15th isn’t a good day for you we’ll be offering this a couple of other dates.  Remember to say you came from the Wilkas Group.

Last week the Median Price for a home for sale in Foster City was $1,190,000.  The Average Price was $1,213,067.  There were 25 homes for sale last week and only 3 were “absorbed” – meaning they were either sold, expired, withdrawn or canceled.  The best buy, and the least expensive home is $860,000 (this is for a single family house on a corner lot, not for a townhouse)!  The most expensive house is $2,100,000. Out of the 25 homes listed 44% have seen price reductions and about a quarter of the listings have been renewed.  This is pretty common today as it’s hard to figure out how to price a home anywhere on the Peninsula with this fragile market.

What you’re seeing in Foster City for a Median Sized house is a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home about 38 years old.  This house is on a 6000 foot lot, with a few homes on larger lots right now, and some with gorgeous waterfront settings.  Since Foster City is a planned community, most of the lots are very similar in size so when we see a listing with a larger lot, it’s often quite special, and there are a couple for sale right now with larger lots.

Quartiles

Our research divides all of the houses on the market into quartiles.  The number one quartile is the most expensive on down to the number four quartile being the least expensive group of houses.  Quartile One has the largest homes and these are also often on the waterfront lots.  Quartile Four has the smaller homes, and right now there are 7 of these available.  They’re the Move-Up homes for families trying to get into the Foster City elementary schools.  You can clearly see the average days these homes are on the market, and whether there have been sales or new listings within each quartile.

Median Price

The Median Price for a home in Foster city has come down a little during the past couple of weeks.  These homes have been on the market for about 103 days but price hasn’t been a real concern for seller’s.  Prices for Foster City have remained around the same level for almost two years.  This is where the quality of schools and proximity to jobs comes into play.

Market Action

This index, the Market Action Index, is the best visual for showing what has been going on with the real estate market in Foster City. The delineation between a Buyer’s Market and a Seller’s Market is 30.  Foster City is in a strong Buyer’s Market today sitting at 17.  There is several months of inventory for sale giving the prospective buyer much to choose from.  Foster City has been sitting around this number for over a year and some might consider this at the bottom of the market.  Perhaps it is, perhaps it isn’t.  My crystal ball says we’re bouncing along down there, but definitely not at bottom since that would be closer to the number zero.  It also shows us that values have held nicely in Foster City for a long time.  It’s a stable market.

This is a great time to buy a home in Foster City.  There are some wonderful homes available, and the schools in Foster City are the best.  We are finally getting some loan programs out there for the move-up buyer who wants a larger home, a better school, or a better commute.  Many of the homes for sale in Foster City come with a Home Owner’s Association and monthly dues.  These homes sit in communities with pools, tennis courts and other amenities for the homeowners.

It would be our pleasure to show you some of the great properties available today.  Call us at 650-696-2820 for an appointment.  Tomorrow I’ll go over the Foster City Condo and Townhouse market.

The City of San Mateo had 140 houses for sale last week with a Median price of $677,000.  The Average price of those houses for sale was $820,827, with the least expensive house listed at $399,000 – something we haven’t seen for years.  The most expensive house was listed at $1,998,000.  Obviously, there is a dramatic difference between the least expensive and the most expensive house and location is only part of the reason.  Seven houses were either sold, canceled, expired or withdrawn, but likely they were all 7 were sold.  The time it takes to sell a home in San Mateo has gone up and is now averaging 109 days.  Our research company, Altos Research calls the City of San Mateo a Cold! Buyer’s Market.

San Mateo, the second largest city in San Mateo County, has four zip codes and I’ll go over the difference in the real estate market within each zip a little later.  Altos Research likes to divide their research into quarters, or Quartiles.  Quartile One makes up the most expensive group of houses down to Quartile Four, with the entry level homes, or the least expensive.  Each of these Quartiles generally fall into different parts of the city, but not always.  The First and Second Quartiles are selling faster than the Third and Fourth Quartile, yet all of them have a median of 3 bedrooms and either 1 or 2+ baths.  There is a slight difference in the median age of the homes in the different Quartiles, and of course, the square footage or size of the house is different.

The chart showing the decline in Median Price for the City of San Mateo is quite dramatic as it has dropped from the peak around the 4th Quarter 2006 to 1st Quarter 2007.  Everyone is curious if the market has dropped out completely and the Median Price isn’t always going to show this but it is interesting to see prices have been bumping up a little this week.  What will really tell you how the market is doing is by looking at the Market Action Index.

Altos Research developed a way to measure the fluctuation of supply and demand in the real estate market and by analyzing those fluctuations you can get a great picture of what a real estate market is all about.  The dramatic drop in October of 2007 was not the market but a change in the way Altos Research crunched the data.  The market was beginning to drop at that time but so dramatically.  The Index runs from zero to fifty.  The number 30 is the delineation between a Seller’s Market and a Buyer’s Market.  The closer you get to the number 30 the warmer or cooler you become.  The 90-day Market Action Index for the City of San Mateo is at 18, a Strong Buyer’s Market.  This means there is several months of housing inventory on the market and anyone considering buying in San Mateo has a fairly good selection.

So what’s the difference between the other zip codes if the median Market Action Index of the City is 18?  Let’s take a look by beginning with Quartile One.

94402

The most expensive homes in San Mateo are generally found in the 94402 Zip Code. These homes are found mostly west of El Camino Real from the Burlingame border where San Mateo Park sits to highway 92 and encompassing Baywood, Aragon, Baywood Knolls, Parrott Park and  the homes near Aragon High School.  This is Quartile One. The Median Price for homes in this zip last week, and for most of the last part of 2008, have hovered around $1,200,000.  The average priced home was $1,138,818,  The least expensive home was $432,500 and the most expensive was $1,998,000.  Both of these extremes were in teh 94402 zip code.  We are seeing an uptick in the number of days on the market to 96 and there were 44 houses for sale last week and 2 sold.  The average sized home in 94402 is about 1800 square feet on a lot between 5000 and 6500 square feet in size and it’s 58 years old.

The Market Action Index says the 94402 Zip Code is sitting at 16 and that’s considered a Cold! Buyer’s Market. The reason for this is that demand is very low for the higher priced homes due to the difficulty in getting mortgages.  These homes are what we refer to as “move-up” properties and in order to move-up you need to sell your current house.  This is a problem today when there’s competition with Short Sales and the few Foreclosures we’re seeing in the Quartile Two.  Looking at this chart you might say, oh it’s at the bottom or heading that way.  Who knows.  Altos Research takes data weekly and each little squiggle you see is a different week.  Last week 94402 was down, this week it might be up.  If you are Pre-Approved for a loan and covet this area, you can get a great buy at 2004 prices.

94403

This zip encompasses both Quartile Two and Quartile Three.  It is often the area of homes that first time buyers move-up to or move-up from.  This zip code begins just south of highway 92, runs across 101 to cover homes about a half of a mile north to those south near Hillsdale Blvd and then back across 101 to take in the rest of southern San Mateo up to 280.  These homes had a Median Price of $699,000 last week.  The Average Price was $799,759 and with that the least expensive home was $479,900 (likely a Bank Owned Property at that price) to a high of $1,750,000.  The median size finds a house around 1500 square feet sitting on a lot between 4500 and 6500 square feet and is probably a 3 bedroom, 2 bath 54 year old house.

The Market Action Index in the 94403 Zip Code is sitting at 19 and Altos Research says that’s a Cold! Buyer’s Market. It’s also the highest Market Action Index within San Mateo right now. There were 40 houses for sale last week and 4 houses were either sold, withdrawn, canceled or had expired listings.  My guess is these houses sold.  The average days on the market in this zip is now around 99 days.  The homes in this zip cover both Quartile Two and Quartile Three.

94401

Quartile Four resides almost entirely in the 94401 Zip Code.  This is the area of San Mateo that has seen the most Short Sales and REO’s (Bank Owned Properties).  Prices have declined steadily for the past two years.  The high of the market was just about the end of 2006 start of 2007 and prices were in Fantasyland for what was for sale.  These are small homes, built post-war they generally sit either around downtown or across 101 in North and South Shoreview neighborhoods.  There are pockets of newer homes that get much higher prices, and some that sit along the bay also commanding higher prices, too.  Prices are at levels we haven’t seen in years and I’d say they’re back to 2001 or 2002 levels, making them great buys for first time home owners or investors.

The Median Price last week was $499,450.  We saw an average price of $572,731 and within this zip sits the least expensive house for sale in San Mateo at $399,00 and one of the most expensive houses at $1,290,000.  The median size of a house in this zip is about 1100 square feet and generally these houses sit on 5000 square foot lots.  They were originally mostly 2 bedroom 1 baths homes but have been added on so now the median number of bedrooms sits at 3 with 2 baths and the house is about 59 years old.

Looking at the Market Action Index for 94401 Altos Research labels it at 16, a Cold! Buyer’s Market.  There were 54 houses for sale last week and only one sale.  The market in this Quartile is bouncing along the bottom and has been there for over a year.  There are many months of supply and we keep seeing more and more Short Sales and Bank Owned listings in this area making it a Hot Opportunityf or Investors.

The last Zip Code in San Mateo is 94404.  There are only a handful of single family houses in this zip code, which is shared with Foster City.  I’ll cover this zip code tomorrow when I talk about the Condo/Townhouse Market in San Mateo.

As always, should you wish more detailed information about San Mateo we’re happy to provide it.  Just drop us and email here or call us at 650-696-2820.

We have interest rates at historical rates, rate I never thought we’d see again, so if you have secure employment, money in the bank, a good FICO score and the desire to own your own home, this is a fantastic time to do it.  San Mateo is a great city with a variety of homes to choose from.  It’s a central commute whether you’re headed north towards San Francisco or South San Francisco’s biotech or south to Silicon Valley.  It’s close to SFO, has great public transit and almost perfect weather.  What’s not to like?

Last week there were 41 homes for sale in Burlingame with the median price being $1,399,000.  Since the median price is always lower than the average, the average price was $1,568,217 and to get this we had to average from the lowest listing at $695,000 to the highest listing at $4,995,000.  Quite a spread!

It is taking longer and longer to sell a home in Burlingame. It’s now averaging 119 days, or 4 months.  We are oly seeing price reductions in 27% of the homes on the market right now, and only 5% are being re-listed if their listing agreement ends.  So, I know you’re asking, what gives?  We are taking listings for 6 months or longer today, not 90 days like we used to do.  It is taking longer to sell higher ended homes because it is harder to get financing. You must have at least 20% down and stellar credit.  And, even then the banks are being capricious, so if you need to buy or need to sell, be prepared.  It will take a long while.

Median Price

The median house in Burlingame is 63 years young and is likely to be 4 bedrooms and 2 baths sitting on a lot between 4500 square feet and 6500 square feet and the house is about 2200 square feet in size.  We just don’t have huge houses here and the price you pay is really for the dirt the house is sitting on, not so much the house sitting on that dirt.  It’s California’s Gold today – land on the Peninsula.  That’s why I refer to San Mateo County as Fantasy Island, we are an island unique to the rest of the Bay Area.

Our research comes to us from Altos Research, and Altos Research looks at data weekly so I have the most up to date research out there.  They also divide the data into Quartiles, and the Median Price within each Quartile.  The First Quartile represents the most expensive homes, those over $2,000,000.  The Second Quartile represents the next most expensive homes or those around $1,500,000 or so.  The Third Quartile represents the next level, or just below the middle and those are around a $1,200,000 price range and finally the Fourth Quartile, or the entry level home for Burlingame averages around $800,000.

You get a better idea of how the Quartile works from the chart to the right, showing the median prices for each Quartile, the median size of house, lot and age.  In Burlingame the newer homes command the highest prices.

What is interesting to me is that the lowest Quartile, Four, with a median price of $799,000 shows the longest time on the market yet with the demand of Burlingame and the high quality of schools these entry level homes, that used to fly off the shelf so to speak, are languishing and I believe this is due to the difficulty in getting loans.  The banks are hording their money and regardless of what Washington DC is saying, banks are not lending easily, with some exceptions and I can lead you to them if you get in touch with me.

Market Action

Altos Research has developed a way of measuring  a real estate market by the number of homes for sale and the absorption rate, or number of homes sold or removed from the market because of an expired listing or cancellation.  They call this the Market Action Index, and Burlingame is a Strong Buyer’s Market.

Altos uses the index of 30 to divide from a Seller’s Market to a Buyer’s Market and the further away the market is from this line, the Warmer or Colder the market becomes.  Burlingame stands at 19 labeling it as a Cold! Buyer’s Market.  The market has been at this level for some time, bouncing along, up one week, down the next but never really climbing.  What we see is that there are several months of inventory for Burlingame buyers to choose from and negotiate over.  We also see that the prices in Burlingame have been pretty consistent in the past year, and this continues to be the case in all four Quartiles, too.

Burlingame is still one of the prettiest cities along El Camino Real.  Named the City of Trees, you know you’ve reached Burlingame when you drive El Camino because of the trees shading the road.  It’s perfect weather, great schools, picture perfect downtown all add to the ambiance.  If you’re interested in seeing more about Burlingame, let us know.  You can reach us at 650-696-2820 or info@wilkasgroup.com.

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Looking through binoculars

The days of watching a house sell in a nanosecond are way, way, gone.
Today even a house in first rate condition can take a while to
sell.  It means we are in a Normal real estate market.  It
allows prospective buyers the luxury to look at a prospective house
many times and at many different time of the day before writing an
offer.  And, what gets written is an offer where it is expected
you as the seller will negotiate with the buyer.  New concept Mr.
and Mrs. Seller!

Buyers are more in control than in resent years.  Sellers are just beginning to wake up to this, even in San Mateo County where a great many of our real estate markets are still Warm Seller’s markets. Prices are finally adjusting.  They are edging downward, inch by inch.  Not much, but a little at a time with the help of single offers close to asking but not above.

For Sale

If you have a house for sale today and it has sat for a while there is only one problem with it and that is price.  Any house will sell for the right price.  So let’s assume your house is priced competitively and it has been on the market over 60 days.  You
have reduced the price once but is there anything else you can do short of another price reduction? Yes, there is.

I’ve been talking about Points the last couple of days.  Rather than the buyer paying for points, why don’t you, Mr. and Mrs. Seller, offer to pay down the buyer’s points.  Believe me, this is likely less money than another price reduction for you, and it will allow a seller to get a more favorable loan rate.  You win.  The buyer wins.  The agents
win.  We all win.  It’s an old idea that is becoming resurrected and getting used again.  It was done pretty regularly in the late 20th Century — remember back then?  It’s easy to do, effective and just might help get your house sold.  It will certainly garner some additional looks by prospective buyers and isn’t
that what it’s all about?

Suggest it to your agent.  If they haven’t been around very long they may not even know what Points
are, so you can explain them to him.  If you agent is seasoned they’ll jump on the idea and add it to the MLS listing for prospective buyers to see.   If your agent doesn’t “Get It”, call us.  We do.