Belmont Market Update – 4.15.08

Could Belmont Have Hit Bottom and Now Be Rising?

Tuesday is our Broker Tour Day.  We get a list of all new listings available for us to see on Tuesday by late afternoon on Monday.  Belmont, generally one of the hidden gems in our Fantasy Island had 10 homes over $1 Million Dollars today. Belmont had a total of 14 new properties on tour.  That’s saying something.

Altos Research sent me their latest data yesterday.  Last week the average priced home in Belmont was $1,085,968 and the median priced home was $999,000.  Bet that changes next week.  Only 3 properties sold and 1/3 of the listings had price reductions.  Altos tells me that Belmont is a Cold!Buyers Market. Youd never know it looking at how prices have risen and inventory has climbed since the first of the year.

Heres whats telling me that we might be past the bottom of the early 2008 market. Heres the Market Action Index. The Market Action Index illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.

See the little curve upward at the end of the downward line?  That’s the first indicator that things have changed.  What happens next week, and again the following week will tell us more, but something is going on in Belmont.  Generally when the bottom end of a market improves that is a signal that the rest of the market is strengthening.  This is something Ill be watching and reporting back about.

The price of single family homes is a function of supply and demand. Its simple economics at its best.  While Belmont is still a strong buyers market prices for new listings are coming to market at much higher prices than one would expect to see in a cold buyers market.  So what gives?

Inventory levels have been relatively consistent to sales but my bet is those new houses coming to market at these high prices may not sustain those prices for long.  I bet well see a lot of price reductions unless all of the buyers out there, waiting and waiting for something to happen, decide to make offers.

We subscribe to Altos Research for all seven of the cities we cover.  If you want detailed information about your town, let me know.

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