North County's Market Report for October 14, 2025

by The Wilkas Group - Lenore & Alexander Wilkas

Here's what the market looked like last week, and likely will remain so this week, as well.

Just for fun, I asked ChatGPT to look at all of the data I've written about since beginning this newsletter in May. Here's what they say:

Between May and September 2025, North County's housing market transitioned from mild seller dominance to a balanced phase. Inventory normalized, Days on Market lengthened, and pricing plateaued. Trend modeling now projects moderate softening through February 2026 as higher supply meets more cautious demand.

Projected Price & Inventory Trends (to Feb 2026)

Price Forecast (% change vs Sep 2025 avg)

Carlsbad: −5% → resilient luxury segment.
San Marcos: −3% → stable upper mid-market.
Vista: −11% → steepest expected correction.
Oceanside: −8% → rate-sensitive entry zone.
Escondido: −9% → oversupply softens values.
Fallbrook: −7% → mild seasonal retreat.

Inventory Forecast (% change vs Sep 2025 avg)

Carlsbad: +27%
Oceanside: +10%
Vista: +5%
San Marcos: −7%
Escondido: +4%
Fallbrook: +3%

So, what does this all mean? Carlsbad and San Marcos are hot and in a balanced market. The other cities are good for buyers and sellers leaning more towards a buyers market.

Overall Market Trends

Metric	May → Sep 2025 Change	Direction	Key Insight
Median List Price	$1.23M → $1.30M	🔼+5.7%	Prices have generally stabilized after a mid-summer dip.
Median New Price	$1.26M → $1.20M	🔻 -4.6%	Sellers are moderating expectations, possibly responding to slower buyer demand.
Average Days on Market (DOM)	61 → 84	🔼 +38%	Homes are staying on the market longer — indicating cooling demand or seasonal slowdown.
Inventory	887 → 902	⬆️+1.7%	Supply is steady but elevated compared to early summer; balanced market conditions emerging.
Weekly Sales Volume	110 → 119	⬆️+8.2%	Despite longer DOM, sales volume remains healthy — suggesting serious buyers are still active.